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AI Challenge Forums • View topic - Final Tournament Rules

It is currently Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:36 pm Advanced search

Final Tournament Rules

Random stuff about the contest, posts that don't fit in the other forums.

Re: Final Tournament Rules

Postby Janzert » Fri Feb 19, 2010 4:26 pm

I'll just chime in and say that I also see no benefit to producing the final results within a half hour. I would much prefer to see the results take longer and be more accurate. I also think Fritzlein's format would be a large improvement over a simple round robin. Although really it should be pretty easy to get more accurate than a simple round robin in accurately choosing the top bot.
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Re: Final Tournament Rules

Postby aerique » Fri Feb 19, 2010 5:28 pm

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Re: Final Tournament Rules

Postby achan1058 » Sat Feb 20, 2010 6:00 am

I agree on the "no matter how long it takes" as well, especially for the strong bots. We might even see some interesting games.
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Re: Final Tournament Rules

Postby Maxime81 » Mon Feb 22, 2010 3:53 am

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Re: Final Tournament Rules

Postby iouri_ » Mon Feb 22, 2010 7:04 pm

Agree, don't mind waiting a few days or even a couple weeks for high quality results, or even for 'interim' rankings.
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Re: Final Tournament Rules

Postby Accoun_ » Tue Feb 23, 2010 4:13 am

Final map set is secret?
By optimising my bot for big/closed maps i will lose results on 15*15 maps.
I need to know do it or not.
---
final map set will be complete diferent or not?
please publish percent of :
1. large maps
2. closed maps
3. large and closed maps
--
dont be so closed. say information.
its look like winner is Pre-Loaded defined.
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Re: Final Tournament Rules

Postby achan1058 » Wed Feb 24, 2010 7:43 am

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Re: Final Tournament Rules

Postby Accoun_ » Wed Feb 24, 2010 7:51 am

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Re: Final Tournament Rules

Postby Fritzlein » Wed Feb 24, 2010 9:54 pm

Since there has been no update from the Admins on the final tournament format, and the official rules still call for a round robin, I'm going to get all mathematical on you as to why a round robin is a stinky way to pick a winner.

First let us suppose that the discrimination of the tournament has been maximized by eliminating all drawish maps. Draws cloud the issue of who is best, but we count on the admins to have addressed that problem with awesome maps. I submit that even with this issue dealt with, a round robin sucks.

Right now there are 745 bots registered. Let's suppose their true strength expressed in Elo points is normally distributed with a mean of 1500 and a standard deviation of 200. Then the top of the ranking list would look like this:

Bot001 2100
Bot002 2057
Bot003 2030
Bot004 2010
Bot005 1995
Bot006 1981
etc...
Bot745 900

Given this distribution, if we played a round robin Bot001 would have an expected score of 706.0/744, while Bot002 would have an expected score of 696.7/744. So on average, Bot001 will come out 9.3 points ahead of Bot002. But their combined variance of scores is 73.7, meaning the expected scores differ by only 1.1 standard deviations, meaning that there is a 14% chance that the second-best bot will come out ahead of the best bot by pure randomness. And this after we have played 277,140 tournament games!

My proposed format earlier in this thread, which required only 81,500 games for the whole tournament even supposing 1000 entrants, culminated in a twenty-fold round-robin among the top twenty players, after successive stages of narrowing the field in which the top bots probably all already played each other ten times each. In just these thirty mutual games among the top twenty players, Bot001 would have an expected score of 401.8/570 compared to Bot002's expected score of 369.3/570. The variance in games between nearly matched opponents is greater than in mismatches, but nevertheless the expected score difference of 32.5 between the top two bots is just over two standard deviations. This gives less than a 2% chance of Bot002 scoring better than Bot001 by random chance.

In short, my superior format reduced by a factor of more than seven the chances of the wrong bot winning, while simultaneously reducing the number of required games by a factor of at least four. What's not to like? All that is required from the organizers is thirty distinct non-drawish maps and Swiss pairing software for the preliminaries.
Last edited by Fritzlein on Wed Feb 24, 2010 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Final Tournament Rules

Postby Fritzlein » Wed Feb 24, 2010 9:57 pm

Note the importance of distinct maps for good discrimination. If two bots play the same map repeatedly, the same bot probably wins repeatedly, i.e. the results are correlated, i.e. covariance must be added to variance in the above calculation, i.e. the chance of an inferior bot winning the tournament by luck are increased.
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